Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Novak wins 43.9% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Novak 45.6% vs Gourde 49.7% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 66.9%
Defensive zone
Novak 53.4%
Neutral zone
Novak 59.0%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 60.7%
60.7%
39.3%
Novak
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Novak
Gourde
Last 6: Novak 2-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Novak
Gourde
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Novak
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
2
Novak
Gourde
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Novak
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
43.8% (384)
49.1% (847)
-5.3%
Power Play
58.8% (17)
79.5% (44)
-20.7%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
39.5% (81)
+60.5%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +60.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Novak is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Novak shoots left. Gourde is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Home / Away
Novak
Gourde
Home
46.5% (202)
50.1% (491)
Away
42.5% (200)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Novak
Gourde
P1
49.2%
54.7%
P2
44.2%
45.0%
P3
40.0%
49.4%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.2%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
44.5%
Gourde
50.0%▲
43.5%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 17:59 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 01:32 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 07:07 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 01:43 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 17:32 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |