Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Novak wins 43.2% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Novak 43.3% vs Gourde 48.2% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 75.6%
Defensive zone
Gourde 60.4%
Neutral zone
Novak 56.1%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
Novak
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Novak
Gourde
Last 10: Novak 4-6 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
3
Novak
Gourde
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
2
Novak
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
4
3
Novak
Gourde
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Novak
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
42.1% (1,539)
48.4% (4,954)
-6.3%
Power Play
51.9% (133)
57.4% (376)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
39.9% (554)
+10.1%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Novak shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,946).
Home / Away
Novak
Gourde
Home
45.3% (814)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
40.6% (860)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Novak
Gourde
P1
43.9%
49.9%
P2
42.8%
47.4%
P3
41.7%
47.5%
OT
66.7%
37.0%
Final 5 min
40.4%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 10:39 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 04:32 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 2 | 09:49 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 11:56 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 15:21 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 16:54 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 16:44 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 08:55 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 17:59 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 01:32 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 07:07 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 01:43 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 17:32 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |