Scouting Report
Tyler Toffoli holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Zegras wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Toffoli shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zegras 41.5% vs Toffoli 50.7% (-13.0%)
Offensive zone
Zegras 67.1%
Defensive zone
Toffoli 67.2%
Neutral zone
Zegras 52.5%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Zegras
Toffoli
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zegras
Toffoli
Edge
Even Strength
39.4% (510)
62.5% (24)
-23.1%
Power Play
47.1% (34)
33.3% (6)
+13.8%
On even strength, Toffoli has a +23.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toffoli shoots right. Zegras is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (191).
Zegras shoots left. Toffoli is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (24).
Home / Away
Zegras
Toffoli
Home
42.3% (272)
52.9% (17)
Away
37.5% (272)
52.9% (17)
By Period
Zegras
Toffoli
P1
37.6%
58.3%
P2
41.5%
50.0%
P3
40.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.1%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
39.9%
Toffoli
38.0%▼
42.5%
52.9%