Scouting Report
Tyler Toffoli holds a +17.6% FO% edge overall. Zegras wins 33.3% vs right-shot opponents — Toffoli shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zegras 41.3% vs Toffoli 50.8% (-17.6%)
Offensive zone
Toffoli 55.9%
Defensive zone
Zegras 61.4%
Neutral zone
Zegras 53.0%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Zegras
Toffoli
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zegras
Toffoli
Edge
Even Strength
36.5% (156)
56.5% (23)
-20.0%
Power Play
40.7% (27)
0.0% (1)
+40.7%
On power play, Zegras has a +40.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toffoli shoots right. Zegras is 33.3% vs right-shot opponents (48).
Zegras shoots left. Toffoli is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (17).
Home / Away
Zegras
Toffoli
Home
38.9% (113)
41.7% (12)
Away
32.9% (73)
66.7% (12)
By Period
Zegras
Toffoli
P1
40.0%
53.8%
P2
38.1%
55.6%
P3
31.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.8%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
36.6%
Toffoli
38.0%▼
42.5%
54.2%