Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (38.4% vs 38.0%). Zegras wins 30.6% vs right-shot opponents — Toffoli shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zegras 43.3% vs Toffoli 45.0% (+0.4%)
Offensive zone
Toffoli 60.0%
Defensive zone
Zegras 61.5%
Neutral zone
Zegras 51.0%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Zegras
Toffoli
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zegras
Toffoli
Edge
Even Strength
39.8% (128)
39.0% (59)
+0.8%
Power Play
22.2% (9)
36.4% (11)
-14.2%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
0.0% (1)
+0.0%
On power play, Toffoli has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toffoli shoots right. Zegras is 30.6% vs right-shot opponents (36).
Zegras shoots left. Toffoli is 33.3% vs left-shot opponents (51).
Home / Away
Zegras
Toffoli
Home
29.7% (74)
35.1% (37)
Away
48.4% (64)
41.2% (34)
By Period
Zegras
Toffoli
P1
40.7%
46.4%
P2
35.1%
26.9%
P3
41.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
44.8%
26.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
38.4%
Toffoli
38.0%▼
42.5%
38.0%