Scouting Report
Tyler Toffoli holds a +16.9% FO% edge overall. Zegras wins 37.9% vs right-shot opponents — Toffoli shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zegras 42.6% vs Toffoli 50.9% (-16.9%)
Offensive zone
Zegras 60.6%
Defensive zone
Zegras 51.1%
Neutral zone
Zegras 54.5%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
Zegras
Toffoli
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zegras
Toffoli
Edge
Even Strength
41.1% (559)
62.5% (8)
-21.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
50.0% (4)
+0.0%
On even strength, Toffoli has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toffoli shoots right. Zegras is 37.9% vs right-shot opponents (182).
Zegras shoots left. Toffoli is 77.8% vs left-shot opponents (9).
Home / Away
Zegras
Toffoli
Home
45.7% (247)
80.0% (5)
Away
38.0% (326)
42.9% (7)
By Period
Zegras
Toffoli
P1
45.5%
60.0%
P2
36.8%
75.0%
P3
41.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
37.7%
0.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
41.4%
Toffoli
38.0%▼
42.5%
58.3%