Scouting Report
Tyler Toffoli holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Zegras wins 37.8% vs right-shot opponents — Toffoli shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zegras 39.2% vs Toffoli 43.0% (-2.2%)
Offensive zone
Toffoli 57.4%
Defensive zone
Zegras 56.7%
Neutral zone
Toffoli 51.5%
Result
Tyler Toffoli favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Zegras
Toffoli
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zegras
Toffoli
Edge
Even Strength
38.6% (1,669)
41.2% (274)
-2.6%
Power Play
38.5% (148)
45.0% (40)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
26.3% (19)
+2.3%
On power play, Toffoli has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toffoli shoots right. Zegras is 37.8% vs right-shot opponents (596).
Zegras shoots left. Toffoli is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (225).
Home / Away
Zegras
Toffoli
Home
39.9% (882)
44.5% (155)
Away
37.4% (942)
37.6% (178)
By Period
Zegras
Toffoli
P1
40.2%
47.4%
P2
38.0%
39.8%
P3
37.7%
32.9%
OT
31.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
40.3%
33.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
38.6%
Toffoli
38.0%▼
42.5%
40.8%