Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +15.2% FO% edge overall. Zegras wins 30.7% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zegras 35.4% vs Gourde 46.0% (-15.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 92.1%
Defensive zone
Gourde 52.0%
Neutral zone
Zegras 74.2%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 61.1%
61.1%
38.9%
Zegras
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Zegras
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Zegras
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Zegras
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zegras
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
29.6% (230)
47.2% (654)
-17.6%
Power Play
32.1% (56)
45.0% (20)
-12.9%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
32.2% (87)
+67.8%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +67.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Zegras is 30.7% vs left-shot opponents (176).
Zegras shoots left. Gourde is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
Zegras
Gourde
Home
30.6% (147)
44.1% (322)
Away
30.0% (140)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Zegras
Gourde
P1
33.0%
42.4%
P2
31.7%
49.8%
P3
25.6%
44.3%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
29.0%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
30.3%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:05 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 13:37 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |