Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on neutral-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). Zegras wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zegras 39.2% vs Gourde 48.2% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 19-10 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Zegras 92.5%
Defensive zone
Zegras 58.8%
Neutral zone
Zegras 91.4%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 80.5%
80.5%
19.5%
Zegras
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
19
(29 meetings)
10
19
Zegras
Gourde
Last 10: Zegras 2-8 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
6
2
Zegras
Gourde
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
2
8
Zegras
Gourde
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
2
9
Zegras
Gourde
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zegras
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
38.6% (1,669)
48.4% (4,954)
-9.8%
Power Play
38.5% (148)
57.4% (376)
-18.9%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
39.9% (554)
-11.3%
On power play, Gourde has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Zegras is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,228).
Zegras shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,946).
Home / Away
Zegras
Gourde
Home
39.9% (882)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
37.4% (942)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Zegras
Gourde
P1
40.2%
49.9%
P2
38.0%
47.4%
P3
37.7%
47.5%
OT
31.6%
37.0%
Final 5 min
40.3%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
38.6%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:05 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 13:37 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 09:28 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 07:17 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 19:21 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 15:57 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 15:53 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 04:50 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 14:46 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 12:37 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 15:55 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 05:08 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 16:51 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 08:24 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 10:02 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 13:26 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 09:39 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 05:05 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 2 | 09:30 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 3 | 18:04 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |