Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 53.5%). Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 53.4% vs Steel 52.8% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 68.8%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 70.7%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 56.0%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
Kastelic
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Kastelic
Steel
Last 7: Kastelic 4-3 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
0
Kastelic
Steel
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
1
Kastelic
Steel
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
1
2
Kastelic
Steel
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (345)
56.9% (320)
-1.5%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
71.4% (7)
-21.4%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (17)
37.0% (73)
-1.7%
On power play, Steel has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Kastelic is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Kastelic shoots right. Steel is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (176).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Steel
Home
50.6% (162)
55.9% (202)
Away
57.4% (204)
51.0% (198)
By Period
Kastelic
Steel
P1
61.5%
55.5%
P2
52.8%
55.1%
P3
50.0%
50.3%
Final 5 min
46.5%
60.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 17:19 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 11:57 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:39 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 19:53 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 19:49 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 06:38 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 04:49 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |